Our guest this week is Matt from http://www.plusevanalytics.com. He is a Canadian actuary who also dabbles in advantage play. We discuss Taleb’s concept of anti-fragility and how that is very useful in sports betting. We also discuss how the Kelly Criterion comes up with different answers sometimes and how are we to know which is which?
We welcome your questions – send them to us at [email protected], or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or https://www.facebook.com/GamblingWithAnEdge.
podcast
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Show Notes
[00:00] Introduction of Matt from PlusEVAnalytics.com
[00:50] Show notes information and availability
[02:36] The best forum for site comments and feedback is at GamblingWithAnEdge.com
[03:21] Actuarial science as a profession
[05:40] Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Twitter.com/nntaleb
[11:14] NFL season totals and antifragility
[15:45] Dow Jones and antifragility
[17:36] PointsBet.com and distributional mathematics
[24:46] Super Bowl prop bets, Michael Shackleford, and market efficiency
[30:35] Sportsbook hold versus roulette hold, epistemic uncertainty and adverse selection
[39:19] South Point Casino October Promotions – ‘Free Play with a Kicker’
[39:59] Predictit.org/promo/edge – place small bets on various political outcomes, $20 deposit match for GWAE listeners
[40:40] BlackjackApprenticeship.com – card counting training site and community
[41;02] VideoPoker.com/gwae – Gold Membership offers correction on most games
[41:57] Kelly Criterion
[45:49] Being both an actuary and a gambler
[53:10] How can listeners contact Matt?
[56:03] Recommended – Schitt’s Creek on Netflix, Captain Jack Andrews on Youtube and Twitter
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Guest Links:
PlusEVAnalytics.wordpress.com/publications
Recommended:
Schitt’s Creek, Netflix.com/title/80036165
Captain Jack Andrews, Youtube.com/CaptainJackAndrews/videos, Twitter.com/capjack2000