Macau has set an ambitious financial target for 2025, projecting MOP240 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR), signaling a strong recovery in its gaming and tourism industries. The forecast surpasses the MOP216 billion estimate for 2024 and is buoyed by the MOP208.58 billion already recorded in the first 11 months of 2024—a 26.8% increase over the previous year.
Macau’s 2025 budget forecast highlights gaming growth:
The city also expects significant growth in tax revenues from junket commissions. For 2025, the government anticipates collecting MOP100 million from the 5% withholding tax on junket commissions, a 233% increase from the estimated MOP30 million in 2024. Junkets, also known as gaming promoters, remain key to Macau’s VIP gaming market, earning commissions capped at 1.25% on rolling chip turnover.
This optimistic outlook was included in the city’s financial-year 2025 budget plan, approved by the Legislative Assembly. However, the government provided no specific explanation for the anticipated rise in junket tax revenue.
During his recent visit to Macau, Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored the importance of reducing the city’s reliance on gaming revenues. His remarks came as part of the 25th-anniversary celebrations of Macau’s handover to China, coinciding with the swearing-in of the new Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai.
“Efforts should be made to promote moderate economic diversification[…] and focus on cultivating new industries with international competitiveness,” Xi stated, according to Asia Gaming Brief.
Macau’s gaming sector contributes over 81% of government revenue, a dependence that Xi warned poses long-term risks, particularly in light of vulnerabilities exposed during the pandemic. As a result, Macau has committed to developing its economy beyond the gaming sector, focusing on initiatives like the “1+4” strategy, which prioritizes MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions), technology, healthcare, and finance.
Sam Hou Fai echoed these sentiments, pledging to address economic imbalances while enhancing public services and supporting traditional sectors alongside small and medium-sized enterprises.
Junket regulations remain tight amid growth:
Macau has reinforced regulatory measures on junket operations to ensure transparency and compliance. Under a new law effective since August 2024, junkets are prohibited from extending credit directly to gamblers. Only gaming concessionaires are now authorized to issue gambling credit.
As of September 2024, there were 24 licensed junkets in Macau, with the government maintaining the cap at 50 for 2025, as GGRAsia reports. Sands China Ltd and SJM Holdings Ltd lead the casino operators with the largest allocations, each allowed 12 junkets.
The stricter oversight reflects a broader effort to strengthen Macau’s regulatory framework while supporting the continued growth of its VIP gaming sector.
Macau’s tourism sector has played a crucial role in the city’s post-pandemic recovery, with nearly 31.9 million visitors recorded in the first 11 months of 2024. This represents a 26.2% increase over the same period in 2023. While most tourists hail from mainland China, November 2024 saw a notable rise in international visitors, with over 241,000 arrivals from outside China—a 20.9% year-over-year increase.
Efforts to diversify Macau’s tourism base include expanded visa programs, enhanced cross-border travel policies, and promotional campaigns like travel package giveaways. Tourism authorities aim to attract more international visitors, with a target of three million by the end of 2025.