Our guest this week is Jason Pipkin. Jason is a neuroscientist who gambles semi-professionally on elections at predictit.org.
podcast
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Show Notes
[00:00] Introduction of Jason Pipkin, frequent bettor at Predictit.org
[00:58] How did Jason get started on Predictit.org?
[02:48] Jason’s background and predictingpolitics.com
[04:30] Commissions and contract limits
[10:26] Biden and Trump double max contract example
[12:35] Liquidity and market efficiency
[14:35] Can personal political biases affect profitability?
[16:04] Arbitrage
[17:38] Trading frequency
[18:45] Volatility
[20:16] Holding periods and exit strategy
[21:28] Black swan betting
[23:08] 2016 Presidential election market strategies
[24:42] FiveThirtyEight.com
[25:48] Computer analysis and modeling
[26:59] Predictit.org market forums
[28:40] What percentage of bettors in political markets are profitable?
[31:24] Straddles
[32:47] Determinants of volatility
[36:12] Foreign elections
[38:30] South Point Casino September Promotions – $500,000 Guaranteed Money Madness
[39:22] Predictit.org/promo/edge – place small bets on various political events
[41:47] Market suggestions
[43:20] Similarities to options trading
[45:24] Holding contracts until expiry
[48:39] How can listeners contact Jason?
[49:10] Discussing gambling in personal relationships
[50:28] Recommended – MyNoise.net
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